Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Chapter Outline 8.1. Classification of SolarForecasting Methods 172 8.2. Deterministic and Stochastic Forecasting Approaches 177 8.2.1. A Critical Appraisal of Physically-Based Forecasting Approaches 177 8.2.2. Satellite Forecasts 178 8.2.3. Sky-Imager Forecasts 179 8.2.4. Data Inputs to Stochastic-Learning Approaches 179 8.2.5. Section Summary 181 8.3. Metrics for Evaluation of Solar-Forecasting Models 182 8.3.1. Solar Resource Variability 182 8.3.2. Conventional Metrics for Model Evaluation 183 8.3.3. A Time HorizoneInvariant (THI) Metric 185 8.4. Applying the THI Metric to Evaluate Persistence, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Forecast Models 187 8.4.1. NAR and NARX Forecasting Models 187 8.4.2. Comparison of Forecasting Models and Persistence 188 8.4.3. Comparison with a Satellite Cloud-Motion Forecast Model 191 8.5. Conclusions 191 References 192